This is blog #7 in our "Understanding Drought" series, where we dive deep into Alberta's current drought situation. Keep an eye on ABWater.ca for more blogs, videos, and the latest information.
Blog by Maria Albuquerque. Edited by Shannon Frank.
Flowers are blossoming, grass is growing, birds are chirping, the temperature is rising, rain is falling, and people are wondering: are we still in a drought? The short answer is yes; read on to find out why.
After record-breaking low levels in the Oldman watershed’s reservoirs in December 2023, many Albertans worried about the water storage for this coming season. After the recent rains and snowmelt, water levels have increased in the area, but the coming months' forecasts are still uncertain. El Niño conditions are transitioning to a neutral zone and La Niña is expected for summer and fall. As the watershed is in a semi-arid region, drought conditions are a key characteristic of this place, and conserving water is still a priority to keep our land and water healthy. It will take a long time to rebuild surface and groundwater levels after a prolonged drought like we have been experiencing.
Current Conditions
What does our Alberta Rivers website/app tell us?
Since 2021, snow accumulation and mountain runoff have been much below average in the Oldman watershed, decreasing Southern Alberta’s water flow and impacting our water storage and ecosystem. May and June are special months in our watershed since, during these months, we receive most of our water supply from the snowmelt and rainfall that fills our reservoirs and rejuvenates the watershed.
2024 Snow Accumulation & Precipitation
As of June 6th, snow accumulation in the Oldman watershed is much below average to average. The snow water equivalent in millimeters calculated in the watershed range from 4 at the South Racehorse Creek to 321 at Gardiner Creek. Some parts of the watershed are receiving more mountain runoff than others. In addition to snowmelt, the recent days of precipitation significantly increased water levels in the Oldman watershed; however, many rivers' water levels are still below average. The average level in all ten reservoirs in the basin is 90%, a significant increase since December 2023.
The water levels in the three major onstream storage reservoirs in the Oldman watershed (Oldman, Waterton, and St. Mary Reservoirs) compared from November 2023 to May 2024. May volumes were below average to average for all three reservoirs. Please note that the Waterton Reservoir has released water to the river to avoid overflow from mountain runoff. By Maria Albuquerque.
Soil Moisture
On May 2, 2024, current soil moisture reserves (i.e., previously fallen precipitation stored in the ground) were shown to be normal to high for most of the Oldman watershed, with moderately low to low levels near the County of Warner area.
For June it is now mostly normal to extremely high, except for a part of the M.D of Willow Creek, which is moderately low.
Water Shortage Advisories Dropped
Although Alberta received several days of rain in May, parts of the province are still experiencing drought, with below-average water levels in the basins. As of June 10, 25 Water Shortage Advisories are in place, which dropped significantly from 51 in December 2024. Most of the advisories are in the northern part of the province, and currently, there are no advisories for the Oldman watershed. The Government of Alberta (GOA) recently released a Drought Response Plan with updated water shortage advisory stages and drought strategies. The plan is a guide that covers conservation and emergency plans, water-sharing agreements, and water prioritization for human health and safety.
Summer Forecast Reveal
El Niño or La Niña?
After long months of El Niño conditions, including warmer and dry weather, the Pacific temperature patterns are currently shifting. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released an updated forecast for this summer, and we are leaving El Niño and entering a neutral zone, called ENSO-neutral, quickly followed by La Niña. During the neutral zone, the sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean are normal and do not cause El Niño or La Niña effects. When the average temperature is 0.5 lower than normal for six months, then, we see the effect of La Niña. This condition has the opposite effect of El Niño, it brings colder and wetter weather to the north of North America and warm and dry conditions to the south.
With more than a 70% chance, La Niña will start in July and continue throughout fall and winter. La Niña causes the jet stream to move northward and to weaken over the eastern Pacific. During La Niña winters, the South sees warmer and drier conditions than usual (NOAA, 2024).
In addition to La Niña conditions, Environment Canada and NOAA predictions for southern Alberta forecast above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for this summer of 2024. That means that we should experience less rain in our watershed with hot temperatures, potentially prolonging our current drought.
What does this all mean for us?
La Niña predictions and the current water levels indicate wetter weather compared to what we experienced last year during El Niño effects. However, it is still unclear how much water our watershed will continue to receive, so being prepared for drought is our safest option.
Our watershed is in a semi-arid region, meaning the land loses more water through evapotranspiration (water loss from the soil and leaves) than it receives from the sky. Normal precipitation (ie, non-drought conditions) is still low compared to other parts of Canada. The constant wind gusts in this region are a key characteristic of a semi-arid climate, and they contribute to water losses. In addition to our natural dry corner, changes in the landscape, such as overgrazed pastures, roads, and other developments, can reduce water infiltration and facilitate evaporation. In general, hot and windy days can exacerbate drought conditions and be worsened by human activities. To live in a semi-arid region means that we all need to be responsible water users, we all play a role in conserving water.
The world’s arid regions. Southern Alberta is part of the semi-arid region that extends to central Mexico. Right here in our watershed, we have a similar climate region to central Africa! Adapted from United Nations Environment Program (2007).
Some municipalities are already under water restrictions, and others have water restriction plans in place. Most restrictions involve reducing outside water use (the highest household water use in the summer), such as time and frequency restrictions for lawn watering. Depending on how much precipitation we get this summer, we will experience more or less restrictions. The Government of Alberta (GOA) has facilitated water-sharing agreements with the largest water users in the province, who are working with the province voluntarily to share water and reduce water consumption.
For more information on maintaining your lawn and trees during a drought or lowering your outdoor water use with a Prairie Urban Garden of drought tolerant native plants, please visit our drought page, ABwater.ca.
Watershed For All
Our watershed is also home to diverse wildlife, plants, and fish, which all need water, especially during this time of the year. Spring and summer are important times for wildlife reproduction, as many animals are giving birth and raising their babies. Also, many migrating animals come to our watershed to find their mates and reproduce, like the White American Pelican. We can be their allies in keeping their offspring safe and hydrated!
The Oldman River weir in Lethbridge with White American Pelicans and a mule deer in the back drinking water. By Maria Albuquerque, June 2024.
While precipitation refills our watershed, we don't know what the coming months will bring. Continuing to conserve water in a drought-prone region is the safest way to support our land, water, and everything in between!
