*Cover photo by Jon Martin C 2020.
Now that we are officially into summer, you may be wondering what kind of summer 2020 has in store for us. Will there be wildfires causing thick, smoky air, making it difficult to spend time enjoying nature? Will farmers have a good crop, bringing economic stability to our region? Will there be water restrictions? Floods?
While science can’t predict our exact future, climate data can inform computer models and help the good folks at the Government of Canada and Government of Alberta to create forecasts of what we may have in store. Let’s have a look at what we might expect over the next few months.
Snow
Our water supply in Southern Alberta is highly dependent on snowpack. Located high up in the mountains, the snowpack is the collection of snow and precipitation that accumulates and compacts under its own weight. As it melts in the spring, the snowpack releases the stored precipitation into mountain streams, which eventually makes its way into our creeks and rivers, filling our reservoirs and providing the water we use throughout the summer months. While some areas get their water from glacial melt, the water in our watershed comes primarily from snowpack sources and precipitation in the mountains.
Understanding the snowpack enables scientists to predict what the water situation will be like in our watershed. This is essential, not only for the towns, cities, and municipalities that require water for their residents, but also for the agricultural producers and industry who need water for cattle and crops.
This winter, we had an above average snowpack in the mountains. When measured in April, the amount found ranged from 119% at Gardiner Creek, to 149% at South Racehorse Creek. The Government of Alberta monitors 6 sites, called snow pillows, in the Oldman watershed. Each site is critical to downstream water supply. Based on information gathered about snow depth and density at each site, forecasters are able to predict streamflow, allowing the irrigation farmers, cities, and other residents who rely on the water source to plan and prepare.
Snow covering the mountains in the Livingstone gap area. Photo by Jon Martin C 2020.
Streamflow
Streamflow refers to the flow of a water way, usually measured by calculating water velocity. As this year’s large snowpack melted, it naturally led to favourable streamflows. Subsequently, an average to above-average streamflow was measured from March to May, and all of the major reservoirs in the Oldman watershed are over 90% full. Forecasters are predicting average to above-average stream flow from June to September 2020. This is good news and means we will likely not see water restrictions for irrigation farmers or urban centres due to low streamflow. However, some towns and villages who rely on smaller streams and do not have upstream reservoirs may still experience water challenges.
Photo by Jon Martin C 2020.
Temperature
While it may not come as a surprise given the last few years of above-average temperatures in our region, Environment Canada is forecasting a 40% probability of above normal temperatures in June, July and August. This means it could be even hotter than normal—get your fans, air conditioners, kiddy pools, and sunscreen ready!
Precipitation
Fortunately, Environment Canada is forecasting near normal precipitation for June, July and August. This is also good news, mainly because it means we (hopefully) will not see the tinder dry conditions that lead to large and uncontrollable wildfires, like what we experienced in 2017.
Reservoir spillway. Photo by Jon Martin.
Pandemic
No matter what happens with the weather and precipitation, this summer will be one to remember with the many changes that have occurred as a result of COVID-19. What we know from this information is that we can all rest a bit easier knowing that the water supply forecast for our watershed is looking good and climatic conditions are expected to be ‘near normal’. Whatever your normal is, all of us at the OWC wish you a safe and wonderful summer filled with treasured memories.
